Don’t expect to see a human behind the wheel of an 18-wheeler by 2027. Or a set of human hands performing a delicate surgery by 2053.
According to a new study from Oxford and Yale University researchers, those are the years artificial intelligence is slated to take over each of those tasks. And so it will go for millions of other jobs over the next 50 years, researchers find.
The study relied on survey responses of 352 AI researchers who gave their opinions on when in the future machines would replace humans for various tasks.
Lead investigator Katja Grace and her colleagues found the tasks most likely to get automated within the next 10 years were rote, mechanical tasks. Language translation could outpace human performance by 2024, responses indicated, and robots may be able to write better high-school-level essays than humans in 2026.
More complex and creative tasks, like writing books and performing high-level math, will take longer. Ultimately, the researchers found AI could automate all human tasks by the year 2051 and all human jobs by 2136.
“Advances in artificial intelligence … will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military,” the researchers wrote. “These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.”